How long will coronavirus last in Australia? Here are three possibilities.

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3. “Continue squashing the curve for months and months till sometime in 2021 (with a muted epidemic or two along the way) until a vaccine is available – with less mortality but also much greater societal and economic cost.”

None of these options is perfect; each involves a significant cost, either to the health system, the economy or the community. And it remains to be seen which would be the most effective.

But to get a sense of what our leaders are wrestling with right now, let’s peer down Blakely’s three paths.


Elimination basically means driving the number of cases to zero using strict physical distancing and strict border control.

John Daley, Chief Executive Officer of the Grattan Institute, recently explained via The Conversation that an elimination scenario involves only maintaining essential services, including the food supply chain and utilities. Everything…

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